This first note is not a surprise to anyone who understands the U.S. news media, but there is a story out there that they are NOT reporting. Huh….fancy that.
A story from the Ottawa Citizen today is this one:
Hurricane experts admit they can’t predict hurricanes early; December forecasts too unreliable
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
By Tom Spears, The Ottawa Citizen
OTTAWA — Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.
William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.
The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.
Colorado State has been known for decades for forecasts of how many named storms and hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.)
Last week, the pair made this announcement:
“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year … Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”
The two will still make the traditional forecasts closer to hurricane season.
An earlier version of this story incorrectly said they were stopping all forecasts.
Here is a link to the actual story:
Now, reading between the lines here, the phrase “even with supercomputers” clearly indicates the use of computer models for their forecasting.
So, what is the problem for global warming believers?
Well, if the computer models can’t even predict next year’s hurricanes in December, then how can computer models predict what global temperature trends will be for what many of them say are for decades into the future?